Retirement Planning

The Sequence-of-Returns Risk Most Retirees Don't See Coming

September 20267 min read

The order in which your portfolio gains and losses occur matters far more than the average return. Here's how to protect yourself in the critical years around retirement.

Most investors understand that markets go up and down. What far fewer appreciate is that the timing of those swings — not just their magnitude — can determine whether a retirement plan succeeds or fails. This is the sequence-of-returns risk, and it is one of the most consequential and least discussed forces in retirement planning.

Consider two retirees who each earn an identical average annual return of 6% over a 20-year retirement. The first experiences strong early returns followed by a downturn late in retirement. The second faces a significant market decline in the first few years, then recovers. Despite identical averages, the second retiree may run out of money a decade before the first. The difference is sequence.

The reason is straightforward: when you are drawing down a portfolio — taking withdrawals each year to fund living expenses — a loss early in retirement forces you to sell more shares at depressed prices to meet the same income need. Those shares are gone permanently. When the market recovers, you have fewer shares participating in the rebound. The math compounds against you.

The years immediately surrounding retirement — roughly five years before and five years after — are the most vulnerable window. Financial planners sometimes call this the 'retirement red zone.' A significant market decline during this period can permanently impair a portfolio's ability to sustain withdrawals for 20 or 30 years.

There are several strategies that can reduce this exposure. Building a cash or short-term bond reserve — sometimes called a 'bucket' — allows you to fund one to three years of living expenses without touching your equity portfolio during a downturn. A flexible withdrawal strategy, where you reduce discretionary spending in down years, can also meaningfully extend portfolio longevity. Some clients use annuities or permanent life insurance cash value as a source of income that is insulated from market volatility, preserving the equity portfolio during recoveries.

The most important step is to plan for this risk explicitly, before retirement begins. A financial plan that assumes a smooth average return will systematically underestimate the danger. A plan that stress-tests against adverse early sequences — and builds in structural protections — gives you a far more honest picture of where you stand.